Romney lost statewide, as we already knew, but more remarkable is the number of districts he has lost. He lost many of them by thin margins, but that is not much consolation. It appears that he has lost almost all, except the 21st, 49th and 52nd (which he has won) and possibly the 42nd, which is very close and has not finished reporting. 4 for 53 is not what I would call a successful outcome. The 21st is a Republican-held district covering eastern Fresno County; the 42nd is Gary Miller’s district covering Orange and San Bernardino; the 49th is Darrell Issa’s northern San Diego district; the 52nd is Duncan Hunter’s district in San Diego. In the 21st, 49th and 52nd, stalwart Giuliani voters who still backed the mayor saved Romney from losing those districts as well–Giuliani and McCain’s votes together there outnumber Romney’s. “A vote for Giuliani is a vote for Romney”–I wonder why that one never caught on? Meanwhile, some stalwart Thompson voters may have weakened Romney in at least four districts, if you assume that Thompson voters are likely Romney supporters (I am skeptical, but it is possible). There is no way to spin this as anything other than a major defeat for Romney, for whom remaining competitive in district-by-district delegate allocation was vital.
Remarkably, Huckabee only got 10% in Hunter’s district, while he received as much as 16% in the Democratic 43rd and 16% again in the 21st that Romney has won (as clear a sign that Huckabee is not siphoning off Romney votes as you can hope to find in California). The pattern from the 21st seems to keep recurring in many of the other districts: where Huckabee scores well, McCain wins by smaller margins or fails to win and his share of the vote decreases, and where Huckabee is weaker McCain’s margins and share of the vote increase. That is not true in every case, but this is what happened in many of the districts.
Looking at the race nationally, I wonder when the anti-McCain movement figures will be sending a thank you note to Huckabee for keeping the race open for another couple of weeks. Had McCain won the states Huckabee took last night, his lead would be almost insurmountable now. As it is, there is still an outside chance of fighting on if McCain’s rivals were so inclined.
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February 6th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
DaveA
While there will probably still be some sniping from the likes of Limbaugh and Coulter, I think the fact of the matter is that the battle is over and the anti-McCain forces have lost. Even Hewitt has all but thrown in the towel on his man Mitt, and begun exhuming the Usual Tropes — Supreme Court justices, a vote for the Dems is a vote for the terrorists, etc. — for why we should all come together and Support The Nominee, whoever he is.
Romney is dead man walking, Huck will continue his (IMHO likely to be successful) campaign for veep, and McCain will keep issuing “above the fray” appeals for unity like the one today. It will be McCain/Huckabee coming out of the convention. The GOP race is over.
February 6th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Daniel Larison
It’s over right now only if Romney drops out soon and Huckabee really does want the VP job rather than challenge for the prize. Even though it makes some sense, the selection of Huckabee for VP would magnify McCain’s problems with donors and activists considerably. The race is all but over, but the others could keep it going at least through 3/4 if they really wanted to.
February 6th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
M.Z. Forrest
Romney has problems. He doesn’t have any problems he didn’t have Monday though. For both him, Huckabee, and really the whole party there are good reasons to keep trying to get delegates. With the large numbers of McCain delegates likely to be at the convention, the liklihood of embarrassing platform fights is increased, or at least things that would really upset the base. If we are going to make Huckabee VP, Romney is a better top as far as electoral considerations. Obviously there would have to be a whole lot of kissing and making up for that to happen. I have to agree with Mr. Larison that Huckabee would be a very poor VP candidate for McCain. To pile on, Huckabee is a much better stump speaker. If he were to give the VP acceptance speech at the convention, no one would remember McCain’s speech. The difference in age between Huckabee and McCain would look like Bush/Quayle all over again. I think McCain would try to play strength and get Powell, Clark, Franks, Schwarzkopf, or possibly even Patreaus as a VP.
February 6th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
DaveA
You’re right, they could — but I think you can see the beginnings of a “we need to come together” movement starting, and I expect that will only gain momentum in the coming days. Romney almost certainly won’t play that game, but that hardly matters since he can’t win outside of caucus and “home” states.
The donor/activist issue is a point, but remember that it still looks like the Wicked Witch of the West has the inside track for the Dems, thanks to her pocket-full of superdelegate slots staffed by party regulars. If she’s the nominee, money will flow into GOP coffers, and volunteers pop out of the woodwork, regardless of who their man is. If Obama pulls out a win, all bets are off.
February 6th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Grumpy Old Man
McCain might consider a woman if Obama is the Dem. candidate, or a black man if it’s Hillary. Maybe one with economic credentials. Deal the race and gender cards? See you and raise you.
VP doesn’t affect the election much, but splitting off a few points in key states could be important.
I’m not fond of identity politics, but I voted for Ron Paul, so what do I know?
February 6th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
DaveA
Hey, at least you got to vote for Paul when it (sort of) counted. I have to wait until May to “throw my vote away.”
I think the veep spot will be determined by whether McCain gets enough delegates to secure the nomination. If so, man, woman, black, white, Klingon…it’s all up for grabs. If not, Huck seems the logical choice, at least to me — and let me add that I wouldn’t vote for that ticket if you paid me.
But contra M.Z. Forrest, I think Huck’s charm would perfectly offset McCain’s un-excitingness, and the age issue could work in their favor (I would throw out the idea of McCain pledging to serve just one term). The idea of McCain getting a military type as a veep strikes me as redundant. Wouldn’t it be better to try to put someone on the ticket who helps McCain with social conservatives?
February 6th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Grumpy Old Man
I’d vote for the Klingon any time.
February 6th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
DaveA
Me too, though I’d hold out for a barrel of blood wine.
As an addenda to an earlier post, word today is that Her Wicked Witch-ness is flat broke and writing herself campaign checks, a la Romney. This election season is definitely headed into the ranks of most bizarre of all time.