I disagree with him on many issues, and almost certainly will not vote for him in the primary, but I respect the man. He is who he is, and not what some consultant told him to be for the nonce..

Whether you blame the media or blame low-information voters, “likability” is not an irrelevant factor in how voters vote. And Obama and McCain beat Clinton and Romney, respectively, on that count.

Obama’s not a similar candidate to Bush. Bush was a party machine candidate who used happy talk to obscure his fealty to the movement. Obama actually irritates the movement on the left, to the extent such a thing exists, with his centrist/right-leaning rhetoric and his apparently principled commitment to working with people from the opposite side.

Now, as a Democrat, I think that jihadi, lockstep Republicans and spineless Democrats are the problem, rather than too much partisanship. But allowing for my bias, I don’t think that voters will confuse Obama’s optimistic, “we’re-in-this-together” outlook with Bush’s smug, baseless, unshakable self-confidence.

Your point about McCain’s militarism makes sense, but somehow it never seems to affect his popularity. Maybe it’s because the press loves him, or because militarism is always treated as “serious,” or because people don’t want to criticize him on national security given his personal heroism, or because of his apparent spontaneity and wit. But whatever the reason, he’s viewed more favorably by moderates than the other Republicans.

So while I see your point about contempt, I also don’t think that Dems and GOPers are necessarily wrong to fear McCain and Obama more than the alternatives.