Here’s something that keeps puzzling me. Some people say that Democrats are afraid of McCain as the GOP nominee, and some people say that Republicans are afraid of Obama as the Dem nominee. No doubt, this is an accurate portrayal of attitudes within both parties. One party or the other may be right to be afraid, but I’m pretty sure that both sides can’t be right in their assessment of the danger. The more I think about it, though, the less it makes sense to me that Democrats fear McCain and Republicans fear Obama. It seems to me that there are at least two things that explain this fear: admiration for the opposing party’s candidate and contempt for that candidate’s rivals. Contempt blinds both sides to the political strengths of the other candidates, while their admiration exaggerates the abilities and appeal of the one candidate, whose exaggerated abilities and appeal then make them fear for their party’s success in the fall. Another factor seems to be that the candidate whom each side fears the most seems to represent something, whether in style or substance, that exposes what each party sees as a glaring weakness in itself. Republicans have built up an entire mythology about the importance of optimism as central to the appeal of Reagan, and if there is one thing Obama has in spades it is optimism, while the modern GOP traffics in the most blatant fearmongering and doomsaying, so perhaps Republicans fear that Obama’s comparison of himself to Reagan isn’t merely self-important bluster. Meanwhile, Democrats fear McCain because he represents unvarnished militarism and appears to Democrats, conditioned for decades to be constantly on the defensive on military and national security matters, to have an insurmountable advantage on foreign affairs and national security. What neither side seems to grasp is how completely wrong its assessment is: one of the last things Americans want after seven years of Bush is more starry-eyed optimism, and probably the last thing they want is more of the same confrontational, aggressive meddling overseas. What each side fears about the other’s possible nominee is actually the candidate’s weakness, and what each party believes to be its weakness is actually one of its best electoral assets in the current cycle.
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January 23rd, 2008 at 7:47 am
Elvis Elvisberg
There’s definitely a lot to your argument, but I think it’s somewhat overstated.
Whether you blame the media or blame low-information voters, “likability” is not an irrelevant factor in how voters vote. And Obama and McCain beat Clinton and Romney, respectively, on that count.
Obama’s not a similar candidate to Bush. Bush was a party machine candidate who used happy talk to obscure his fealty to the movement. Obama actually irritates the movement on the left, to the extent such a thing exists, with his centrist/right-leaning rhetoric and his apparently principled commitment to working with people from the opposite side.
Now, as a Democrat, I think that jihadi, lockstep Republicans and spineless Democrats are the problem, rather than too much partisanship. But allowing for my bias, I don’t think that voters will confuse Obama’s optimistic, “we’re-in-this-together” outlook with Bush’s smug, baseless, unshakable self-confidence.
Your point about McCain’s militarism makes sense, but somehow it never seems to affect his popularity. Maybe it’s because the press loves him, or because militarism is always treated as “serious,” or because people don’t want to criticize him on national security given his personal heroism, or because of his apparent spontaneity and wit. But whatever the reason, he’s viewed more favorably by moderates than the other Republicans.
So while I see your point about contempt, I also don’t think that Dems and GOPers are necessarily wrong to fear McCain and Obama more than the alternatives.
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:30 pm
Grumpy Old Man
McCain’s a genuine hero, and quite obviously doesn’t follow anyone’s party line. It also seems to me that a military man might be more cautious about launching new adventures.
I disagree with him on many issues, and almost certainly will not vote for him in the primary, but I respect the man. He is who he is, and not what some consultant told him to be for the nonce..