http://larison.org/2008/01/18/tomorrows-john-edwards/ n. the principle of good order "Observe the strange inversion of all order and sense! Dignity debased; how vilely is the function of a consul prostituted!" ~The Craftsman Sat, 20 Mar 2010 07:44:03 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.4 http://larison.org/2008/01/18/tomorrows-john-edwards/#comment-8637 Sat, 19 Jan 2008 06:14:26 +0000 http://larison.org/2008/01/18/tomorrows-john-edwards/#comment-8637 Minor quibble Daniel - You say "If the example of John Edwards tells us something, it is that repeat candidates for the nomination tend to perform less well in the second attempt (Reagan being a big exception that leaps to mind)." In addition to Reagan, Dole finished 2nd in '88 and won the nomination in '96, McCain finished 2nd in 2000, and might yet win the nomination this time around. Bush 41 finished 2nd in '80 and won in '88, but of course he was VP, which puts him in a different category. The point is that there is no clear evidence, at least on the GOP side, that candidates who make a decent showing but lose the nomination the first time around will not win in a later contest. There isn't enough data here to make a strong case that Huckabee will emerge as a strong contender for a future GOP nomination, but there's also not enough to make the contrary case either. I think it depends on how Huckabee's campaign plays out. Assuming he loses SC to McCain, finishes well behind in Florida, and wins at most a handful of delegates on Super Tuesday in a few southern states and states with proportional primaries or caucuses, he probably becomes a non-factor for the future, sort of a footnote to this election cycle. On the other hand, if he can rally in SC, make a strong showing in Florida, win 5-6 states on Super Tuesday and make a strong showing in the proportional primaries and caucuses, and go to the convention with a substantial bloc of delegates, with the GOP subsequently losing the election badly, he might emerge as a dynamic force in the GOP in the next four years. It's possible to imagine a scenario in which this all plays out, Huckabee makes a major effort to mend relations with the conservative elite, and they recognize that he or somebody like him is their best chance to regain control of the White House. I wouldn't necessarily say this is likely to happen, but it is a reasonably plausible. Minor quibble Daniel - You say “If the example of John Edwards tells us something, it is that repeat candidates for the nomination tend to perform less well in the second attempt (Reagan being a big exception that leaps to mind).” In addition to Reagan, Dole finished 2nd in ‘88 and won the nomination in ‘96, McCain finished 2nd in 2000, and might yet win the nomination this time around. Bush 41 finished 2nd in ‘80 and won in ‘88, but of course he was VP, which puts him in a different category. The point is that there is no clear evidence, at least on the GOP side, that candidates who make a decent showing but lose the nomination the first time around will not win in a later contest. There isn’t enough data here to make a strong case that Huckabee will emerge as a strong contender for a future GOP nomination, but there’s also not enough to make the contrary case either. I think it depends on how Huckabee’s campaign plays out. Assuming he loses SC to McCain, finishes well behind in Florida, and wins at most a handful of delegates on Super Tuesday in a few southern states and states with proportional primaries or caucuses, he probably becomes a non-factor for the future, sort of a footnote to this election cycle. On the other hand, if he can rally in SC, make a strong showing in Florida, win 5-6 states on Super Tuesday and make a strong showing in the proportional primaries and caucuses, and go to the convention with a substantial bloc of delegates, with the GOP subsequently losing the election badly, he might emerge as a dynamic force in the GOP in the next four years. It’s possible to imagine a scenario in which this all plays out, Huckabee makes a major effort to mend relations with the conservative elite, and they recognize that he or somebody like him is their best chance to regain control of the White House. I wouldn’t necessarily say this is likely to happen, but it is a reasonably plausible.

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