As usual, Hewitt is annoyed that people are not giving enough respect to his dear Mitt:
I heard one bit of punditry passed from microphone to microphone yesterday: If Romney doesn’t win in New Hampshire, he’s finished.
This assessment isn’t asserted about Hillary, who also planned to win early. It isn’t asserted about Mike Huckabee, Thompson or Rudy. It wasn’t asserted about Hillary, McCain, Rudy or Thompson after Iowa.
If no one is saying anything about Fred Thompson’s chances after New Hampshire (where he stands to get somewhere between 2 and 3%), that’s because everyone has already stopped paying much attention to the poor man. After all, why keep kicking a man when he’s down? Giuliani and Clinton, who could well be finished after tonight, don’t receive the same treatment because they still have significant leads in February 5 states and until recently had decent leads in national polling (the latter have since evaporated). Romney’s strategy was explicitly a traditional early-state strategy that required him to do well in the initial contests. Only after Iowa did his minions begin talking about his “national strategy.” The media narrative that Huckabee won because “it was the evangelicals wot did it” also frees him of any obligation to perform very well in a much more secular, left-leaning and culturally libertarian state. Every time someone has pointed out that Romney performs better in non-evangelical electorates than Huckabee, they were setting up the fraud for a fall–the implication then becomes that Romney really needs to win in a state with relatively few evangelicals while he can and his failure to do so is very bad news for him.
This claim is made about Romney because he was the presumptive frontrunner in both Iowa and New Hampshire just two months ago, and retained his New Hampshire lead until last month. People make this assessment because Massachusetts politicians almost always win the New Hampshire primary, and because Romney has spent an embarrassingly large amount of money building up his campaign in the state. If he is upended by McCain, he will have been defeated by a candidate written off by everyone just a couple months ago as doomed–losing to the guy that appears doomed doesn’t help one’s reputation for electability. People make this claim because Romney and his people have been making Muskie-esque guarantees of performance in New Hampshire in particular, essentially guaranteeing victory. (They have been running away from these predictions, but just today Romney expressed confidence in winning.) The same logic would have applied to Huckabee had he lost Iowa: people would have said that if he can’t win there, he can’t win anywhere. If Romney can’t win in New Hampshire, it is hard to see how he prevails elsewhere. This is what he has said about McCain, but it applies just as well to him.
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January 8th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
M.Z. Forrest
I would like to see the successful non-winning-early plan. I don’t think Romney is in good shape, but let’s not kid ourselves into thinking that there is an actual viable plan for not winning early. If I wasn’t so lazy, I would actually research the data and see if there ever was a candidate in the modern delegate process that won the nomination without placing well in the first 5 states.
January 8th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
Daniel Larison
You’re right. Romney’s strategy was the right one, but he failed to execute or rather failed to seal the deal. Giuliani’s strategy was and remains crazy. Placing well helps, and Clinton showed how you could win the nomination without many victories prior to Super Tuesday. Once Romney is done, the nomination will fall to one of the two early victors, which rules out Giuliani and Thompson. My guess now is that it will be Huckabee in the end. As many problems as he may have with some parts of the party, McCain has more problems with larger numbers of voters.
January 8th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
bsebse
Two second place finishes with two different first place finishers will not be enough to kill Romney.
January 8th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
Daniel Larison
I agree with that in that he will stay in the race through Feb. 5, but I think these losses do effectively kill his hopes for winning the nomination and they make a good showing in Michigan and South Carolina very unlikely.
January 8th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Grumpy Old Man
You mean we’ll be watching that annoying talking head for another month? I’m unplugging the TV and buying a crossword puzzle book.