While some late polls suggest that my Iowa predictions may be wrong, I will repeat that Edwards and Huckabee are going to win in Iowa. Obama takes second in Iowa, while Romney, McCain and Paul trail Huckabee in that order. McCain will win New Hampshire, and Giuliani will finish fifth behind Paul, who will be in fourth with 10-12%. Michigan becomes a three-way contest that Romney ultimately loses. Beyond that, I am not yet ready to make any predictions for the rest of the month.
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January 1st, 2008 at 9:34 pm
tcowan
Daniel, I tend to agree with your predictions. This may give your pause to rethink your positions a bit, as I have been so wrong, so often. I believe Edwards will win, barely. I think Obama will be so close, that it will be perceived a tie, probably depriving Edwards of the boost he has to have out of Iowa. Huckabee may still win Iowa, though he has already started to fade a bit. Even if he wins, I do not see his way forward from there (For that matter, I don’t see the way forward for ANY of them.) BTW, I enjoyed your latest article iin “Chronicles.”
January 2nd, 2008 at 2:14 pm
brendancalling
Hi, new to this blog, but here on recommendations from Belgravia Dispatch and a link at Balloon Juice.
I totally agree with your analysis regarding Edwards and Huckabee in Iowa (and also your ron paul posts).
I will be a regular reader from now on, I really enjoy the work here.
January 4th, 2008 at 10:29 am
Roach
Predictions aren’t very useful. If they’re wrong, they should really shame future predictions and cause serious self-reflection about what went wrong. I for instance predicted the surge would be a disaster. It’s been surprisingly effective. I too must avoid predictions, and atone for wrong ones.