Comments on: Unfortunately, She’s Not Finished Yet http://larison.org/2007/12/14/unfortunately-shes-not-finished-yet/ n. the principle of good order "Observe the strange inversion of all order and sense! Dignity debased; how vilely is the function of a consul prostituted!" ~The Craftsman Wed, 17 Mar 2010 21:26:15 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.4 by: horizonr http://larison.org/2007/12/14/unfortunately-shes-not-finished-yet/#comment-8364 Fri, 14 Dec 2007 23:40:46 +0000 http://larison.org/2007/12/14/unfortunately-shes-not-finished-yet/#comment-8364 You are pegging expectations for Obama far too high. He has to win only two of those states -- as long as one of them is South Carolina. Obama is making gains in New Hampshire, but he could have a hard time taking it unless (1) he wins Iowa or (2) Edwards pulls off Iowa, but Clinton bombs spectacularly by coming in third there (with Obama in the number 2 spot). Either of these scenarios is possible. But at the very least, it seems to me that Obama has to win one or the other of Iowa or New Hampshire, for South Carolina to come into play. Black voters there need to see that white voters will vote for him. When and if that happens, my guess is that Clinton's comfortable lead in South Carolina will collapse and Obama will take the state. At that point, Obama would be extremely well positioned for 5 February and the nomination. Still some work to do -- but Obama's in a good place. You are pegging expectations for Obama far too high. He has to win only two of those states — as long as one of them is South Carolina.

Obama is making gains in New Hampshire, but he could have a hard time taking it unless (1) he wins Iowa or (2) Edwards pulls off Iowa, but Clinton bombs spectacularly by coming in third there (with Obama in the number 2 spot).

Either of these scenarios is possible. But at the very least, it seems to me that Obama has to win one or the other of Iowa or New Hampshire, for South Carolina to come into play. Black voters there need to see that white voters will vote for him. When and if that happens, my guess is that Clinton’s comfortable lead in South Carolina will collapse and Obama will take the state.

At that point, Obama would be extremely well positioned for 5 February and the nomination.

Still some work to do — but Obama’s in a good place.

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