Remember the Newsweek Iowa poll that everyone sniffed at and said couldn’t be accurate? (I should add that it seemed reasonable to question such a huge gap opening up so rapidly in Iowa, and at the time the objections made sense.) It turns out that it was probably much more on the mark than anyone expected. Rasmussen, one of the most reliable polling outfits, has the Iowa race as Huckabee 39, Romney 23, and the rest of the field remaining in single digits. The crosstabs have some remarkable numbers: Huckabee wins conservatives 59-11. This is bizarre, not least since Huckabee is not a conservative in so many ways, but then it is bizarre that he is getting endorsements from the Minutemen. More understandably, he wins among moderates 36-28 and even picks up a few liberal Republican votes, most of which otherwise go to McCain and (curiously) Thompson. Huckabee carries every age group and every income group and he leads among both evangelical and mainline Protestants. He loses only among Catholics, unmarried voters and those who religious affiliation is “other.” Among those certain they will participate in the caucuses, Huckabee leads 40-22. Whatever these voters say is their most important issue, they back Huckabee by a wide margin. Voters who say the war is most important back Huckabee 39-19 over Romney; immigration, 36-27; national security, 43-25. This one will both horrify and amuse those of us who know about Huckabee’s string of ethics problems in office: for voters who think government ethics and corruption are the most important issues, he leads the field 56-16 over Ron Paul, with 11% going to Romney. Huckabee’s fav/unfav is 81-16. That’s virtually unheard of.
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