http://larison.org/2007/11/13/paul-huckabee-both-rising/ n. the principle of good order "Observe the strange inversion of all order and sense! Dignity debased; how vilely is the function of a consul prostituted!" ~The Craftsman Thu, 18 Mar 2010 01:03:15 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.4 http://larison.org/2007/11/13/paul-huckabee-both-rising/#comment-8101 Wed, 14 Nov 2007 19:18:59 +0000 http://larison.org/2007/11/13/paul-huckabee-both-rising/#comment-8101 The profiles of Huckabee and Paul voters are entirely different. Religious people are not enthusiastic about Paul at all, but independents and, bizarrely, self-described "moderates" are, while Huckabee does very well among the former and not especially well with the latter. Huckabee will be siphoning off votes from someone else. They're both "second-tier" because the national media have claimed that they are. The caucuses and primaries in January determine who is actually an also-ran. Certainly, I would say that media attention would go heavily to Huckabee if he did win, so it is probably in Paul's best interests for generating media coverage that Huckabee come in second. That can then be advertised as a "Huckabee stagnating, Paul surging" outcome. In any case, the more I think about it the more it seems to me that a Huckabee win probably won't happen. The caucuses are heavily dependent on good organisation, and Huckabee has been weak in organisation since the beginning (because he is weak in funding, which has changed a little but not a lot and not enough). Even Brownback's operation was superior to his. It is a tribute to Huckabee's natural charisma, I suppose, that he beat Brownback at Ames anyway, but it doesn't help his chances at the caucuses. The profiles of Huckabee and Paul voters are entirely different. Religious people are not enthusiastic about Paul at all, but independents and, bizarrely, self-described “moderates” are, while Huckabee does very well among the former and not especially well with the latter. Huckabee will be siphoning off votes from someone else. They’re both “second-tier” because the national media have claimed that they are. The caucuses and primaries in January determine who is actually an also-ran. Certainly, I would say that media attention would go heavily to Huckabee if he did win, so it is probably in Paul’s best interests for generating media coverage that Huckabee come in second. That can then be advertised as a “Huckabee stagnating, Paul surging” outcome. In any case, the more I think about it the more it seems to me that a Huckabee win probably won’t happen. The caucuses are heavily dependent on good organisation, and Huckabee has been weak in organisation since the beginning (because he is weak in funding, which has changed a little but not a lot and not enough). Even Brownback’s operation was superior to his. It is a tribute to Huckabee’s natural charisma, I suppose, that he beat Brownback at Ames anyway, but it doesn’t help his chances at the caucuses.

]]> http://larison.org/2007/11/13/paul-huckabee-both-rising/#comment-8100 Wed, 14 Nov 2007 19:00:46 +0000 http://larison.org/2007/11/13/paul-huckabee-both-rising/#comment-8100 If Huckabee wins Iowa, I think Paul gets hurt in New Hampshire. I don't foresee two second tier risers. The other possible scenario with a Huckabee win is that he is overcome with negative advertising that he is toast in future states. Being cash poor, this could happen. Paul's best shot at the nomination, one that I believe is better than Thompson's, is to place strong in New Hampshire. I don't think show will be high enough. He has to win or place. If Huckabee wins Iowa, I think Paul gets hurt in New Hampshire. I don’t foresee two second tier risers. The other possible scenario with a Huckabee win is that he is overcome with negative advertising that he is toast in future states. Being cash poor, this could happen. Paul’s best shot at the nomination, one that I believe is better than Thompson’s, is to place strong in New Hampshire. I don’t think show will be high enough. He has to win or place.

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