Ron Paul has more money then McCain, but McCain’s campaign is dead. The bad news is that even if Ron Paul has more more money then McCain, McCain is ahead of him in the polls, which pretty much puts Ron Paul’s candidacy in the Dennis Kucinch/Ralph Nader/Mike Gravel category—meaning niche candidate.

The only thing that complicates this is the choice of states—Iowa, New Hampshire and North Carolina—as the first three primaries, because their demographics and politics are offbase with the rest of the country. But if Guiliani can hang in there long enough, eventually he will win, and it will be a cliffhanger between Hillary and Guiliani. Guiliani will prevail depending on which party can cheat thje best on the voting process—a la Florida in 2000, and Ohio in 2004.

Ron Paul’s association with the Libertarian Party has put him way way outside of the Republican mainstream. I’m thankful he’s running, and God Bless everyone who is working so hard on his campaign, but it’s not going anywhere.

SEE: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/03/giuliani-tops-romney-mccain-in-quarterly-fundraising/

SEE: http://www.knbc.com/politics/14276375/detail.html

I’m also skeptical about either the Libertarians and the Constitution Party doing all that well. I’ve voted L before, but both parties have a fringy air about them. And if Hillary is the Democratic nominee, a lot of people on the right are going to hold their noses and vote against her–there should be a yellow-dog anti-Hillary vote.

I suspect that the LP and CP totals will be at least 3% nationally this year.

In a sense, it doesn’t matter for the final result which one the GOP picks–Republican turnout is going to be down, and the possibility of a relatively large Libertarian or Constitution protest vote is all too real with either a Giuliani *or* Romney *or* Thompson. The same kinds of religious conservatives who find Giuliani abhorrent are not going to do somersaults out of enthusiasm for a Mormon and they will be put off by Thompson’s decided lack of public piety. If evangelicals are already drifting away from the party, and none of these candidates seems to have the ability to make the substantive or symbolic appeals to them, that spells real electoral trouble. A Constitution Party candidate could draw in a lot of disaffected religious conservatives. Especially if national polls show a big gap between the major candidates, the temptation to go third party will be strong.

By pretty much general agreement, McCain’s campaign has been in overall decline, despite some recent recovery, and will not win. Thompson is the popular alternative to Giuliani and Romney has loads of his own cash to keep going and to keep advertising like crazy. Giuliani is a giant in the polls with feet of clay. He will fall. Thompson is flopping by the standards of anyone who actually cares about policy, but evidently the people who like Thompson don’t care about that and never did. By all traditional standards, Thompson shouldn’t be able to win the nomination, but then by all traditional standards he shouldn’t have any business being taken seriously as a major candidate, either.

At the risk of making Daniel and myself puke, but how about these possible Republican tickets in 2008?

Rudy Giuliani / Joe-mentum Lieberman.

OR

Rudy Giuliani / Condi Rice.

Don’t laugh. Giuliani, ever the egomaniac, might become too pissed off at Huckabee or Thompson to put them on the ticket, although either would seem to be the traditionally “logical” running mate.

I know what you’re thinking. A Catholic and a Jew or a Catholic and a black female on a Republican ticket — impossible!!!!

But that’s precisely the point. Think about it. This is EXACTLY the sort of stunt Giuliani might pull. The pea-brained Washington / New York media, which Rudy plays like a grand piano, would positively drool and gush at such a “bold” stroke. They would hail it as a so-called “centrist” successor to Bush/Cheney. Bear in mind that Lieberman and Rice are media darlings themselves. What’s more, if Lieberman is on the GOP ticket and the Republicans win, the Democrats automatically lose a Senate seat. (Connecticut’s Republican governor picks his replacement.) Karl Rove would be proud.

If Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, this would be a relatively low-risk move. Giuliani/Lieberman or Giuliani/Rice would have a better shot at picking off a couple of blue states than Hillary does at picking off red ones.

The emerging conventional wisdom seems to be that Mrs. Clinton will be the next president. If this perception is still holding firm next summer and Giuliani is the GOP nominee, all the more reason for him to roll the dice like this. What’s the religious right going to do? Support the anti-war Ron Paul on a third party ticket?

Let me clarify that I’m not saying this WILL happen, merely that something like it could happen. The mere possibility is worth pondering.

John Savage: Paul ran for President as a Libertarian in 1988. He doesn’t seem to have a strong party loyalty, since he declined to endorse Bush in 2004, so I think he might consider a Constitution Party bid, unless he decides he prefers to remain in the House. I think you can run for President and Congress at the same time in Texas and in fact that Paul is currently attempting to do so, but if he ran for President on the Constitution ticket he would probably lose the Republican nomination in his district and, even if he ran on the Constitution ticket for the House as well, would probably lose the seat.

Romney–in Iowa he’s bought a lead, but Rudy is close on his heels in NH and McCain is reviving. Nationally, he can barely break the 10% barrier. And the Mormon thing is still a problem; even Novak thinks so.

Thompson–he’s already flopped.

Giuliani–his warts are now known and haven’t affected his (modest) lead. One’s reaction depends on how one reacts to his NY style, which sticks in your craw. Personally I find it less offensive than Romney’s automaton persona.

McCain–is reviving somewhat, but the train has left without him.

Paul–his money success and the devotion of his followers are strengths and may give him legs, but he will, alas, remain a gadfly, although perhaps right up to the convention.

Giuliani gets it an picks a Southern or possibly Middle Western non-ethnic Protestant as his VP (Bernie Kerik’s not available). It could, in fact, be Huckabee, even if weight loss didn’t help Cruz Bustamante’s candidacy in California.

Do you think Ron Paul has anything to lose by running as a third-party candidate? Or is there some other reason he wouldn’t, that I’m not seeing?