Putin observers have been banging their heads against a wall in frustration as they try to understand his selection of Viktor Zubkov to head a new government as prime minister. Rather than look for the simple explanation that you might use for any other quasi-democratic authoritarian regime (the last government was not seen to be performing well and needed to be replaced), the move has spurred on endless speculation: what does it all mean? The Rise of Zubkov has become the latest in a string of events that serves as the pretext for trotting out all the old cliches about Russia–it’s baffling! it’s mysterious!–which never seem to embarrass the people who employ them. It means that Viktor Zubkov will be prime minister. That’s what it means. Mystery solved.
It seems to me that everyone has become so caught up in the idea that the FSB runs everything that it genuinely stuns people when Putin chooses a non-silovik for a job. They had finally come up with an explanation for how the Russian state worked, and a lot of it even seemed to make sense, and then Putin goes and makes a perfectly boring, non-sinister choice for prime minister. How do you fit that into the narrative of Putin the Monster?
Why does any executive choose a nonentity who will do his bidding? So that he will have a nonentity who will do his bidding. It’s really very simple. Why did George Bush select Alberto Gonzales to be Attorney General? It wasn’t because of his great legal mind. He had Gonzales’ loyalty right to the end, and knew that Gonzales would do as he was told. He might do his job very badly, but he would not do it with any trace of independence!
Because Zubkov is not from the inner circle or an old secret police man, people are perplexed, apparently forgetting that Putin was mayor of St. Petersburg and probably wants to have someone from that city running the government.
P.S. It turns out that he and Zubkov are old colleagues from city government days. The great riddle has been answered.
1 comment
Comments feed for this article
September 15th, 2007 at 1:45 am
petefrance
You are certainly right that loyalty was the chief concern in Zubkov’s nomination, but I think you skirt around the issue a bit to suggest that there is no mystery. Yes, he and Putin worked together in the city government, but not as long as Putin and Ivanov or Medvedev have worked together in this government. That is to say, familiarity isn’t the issue. Further, witnesses say that Putin only ever addressed Zubkov on ‘vy’ a formality not observed with other of his ‘inner circle,’ which would seem to suggest that the ‘old buddy’ theory isn’t really viable.
That’s not to say that there isn’t another relatively straightforward explanation: In order to maintain the appropriate balance of power past 08 (one that will ensure stability as well as facilitating Putins return in ‘12) he needs to create a careful balance of competing interests. In short, he needs people who will be grateful.