Ross points to a David Frum post that explains some of the reasons just how bad of a political death sentence that the new Senate immigration bill is for the GOP. On one point, the scurrilous labeling of opponents of the bill as bigots, one member of the Senate GOP was already vindicating Frum’s prediction before he had made it. It’s worth remembering that the administration used the same “if you don’t support this policy, you’re a racist” rhetoric in arguing for democratisation in Iraq.
Frum is right about some of the political consequences. The impact of immigration on wages is real and hurts American workers, and the GOP just sided against those workers. Rather than pursuing what some might call a “lower-middle” political strategy by defending the interests of American labour here, the GOP showed that its true loyalties always rest with employers. This was a missed opportunity for a sane conservative populism and a gift to the Democrats. It confirms that the GOP is competing for the mantle of Party of Immigration (but it will never win that particular competition), which will turn off millions of their voters, without actually winning over the voters they are trying to win over. The slow-motion implosion of the GOP proceeds apace.
It does expose the Terrible Trio as pro-amnesty or as latecomers to the issue, and it can only remind core Republican voters that the only reliable candidates on immigration with anything like long records are Hunter, Tancredo and Paul. Whether or not this is “unhelpful” to the GOP depends a lot on whether you think the GOP has a remote chance of winning in 2008 (I don’t). Damaging the “electable” candidates is only a bad thing if, well, you want one of those people elected President (I don’t). If there is a pro-amnesty candidate nominated, many core voters will not be enthusiastic or mobilised behind him, based on the old “we want a choice, not an echo” logic, and any one of the “electable” ones will go down to ignominious defeat anyway. Recent polls show that immigration is a priority for only about 7% of Republicans, but that’s a 7% the GOP needs to have energised and working for them. Also, just because immigration does not take first place for a lot of people more concerned about the war doesn’t mean that it isn’t an important issue to them. Just when you thought Mr. Bush couldn’t do any more damage to his party, he manages to come up with a body blow that could cripple it for the next few years.
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May 19th, 2007 at 4:41 pm
Sephiroth
David Frum:
“Over the years, the Republicans have done not too badly with Hispanics, typically winning about 35%-40% of the Hispanic vote”
The only reason that the GOP receives 30%-35% of the “Latino” vote (not 35%-40%) is by conflating Cubans, Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Dominicans, Central Americans and South Americans together into this artificial ethnic construction called “Hispanic.” Interestingly, all of the aforementioned groups save Mexicans do vote GOP at around at 35% clip (Cubans are much higher). Mexicans on the other hand only give about 18-23% of their votes to Republicans, a percentage that hasn’t budged in decades and shows no sign of any potential increase.
It’s darkly humorous to scan some of the larger “right-wing” blogs and watch them as they contort themselves into knots in their attempts to explain how Mexicans are a “natural” GOP constituency, among the reasons being that they “go to church and join the military,” as if this were an exclusively conservative trait. Somehow blacks have done both in large numbers for decades and miraculously 85% still vote for the Democrats!
May 19th, 2007 at 5:06 pm
cyrus
The GOP under Bush has stated repeatedly, using various circumlocutions, that it would rather lose elections than win solely on the basis of white voters. Ensuring this happens will be among the few accomplishments of the Bush administration. So thank you, Jorge Arbusto jr. Your party deserves defeat, and you’ve secured it for the next few decades, at least. Too bad you’ve had to deal a possibly fatal blow to the United States in the process. Oh well, it was increasingly a place I couldn’t bring myself to love anymore.